2020 Thanksgiving is the fourth anniversary of my charity’s mission: “No One in Hunger.” The abundant food on my table reminds me millions of families still struggle to feed their children.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic that shut down almost every country, 2020 was a cruel year. Early 2020 projections forecast severe food shortages in East Africa and South Asia due to the lack of basic materials such as seeds and fertilizers, which could not be delivered to farmers.

Luckily, there was more rain than average in late 2019 to early 2020, and the crops grew well. Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) published its research on the crop emergence (https://bigdata-in-ag.web.app/kenya), which shows that the emergence onset acreage in Kenya in the 2020 long rain season is slightly lower than 2018 but better than 2019 and 2017.

In some areas such as Bungoma County, Kenya, the crop onset acreage in the 2020 long rain season was actually better than in the past three years. 

However, 2021 will be a challenging year. David Beasley, a Nobel Peace Prize Laureate and the head of the World Food Programme, warns us that the world could face a ‘hunger pandemic’ in 2021. COVID-19, local conflict, collapsing economies, locust crises, and drought/flooding may combine to lead the world to the brink of a Hunger Pandemic.

COVID-19 has restricted trade and travel. In most cases, the border closures created shortages of essential food supplies and increases in the prices of related goods and services, including essentials: supply seeds, pesticides, and fertilizers.

Local conflict, one of the major causes of food insecurity, may also play a significant role in amplifying the effects of COVID-19 in 2021. An upsurge in violence has been observed in both the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burkina Faso. While peace agreements like the one in South Sudan offer hope, famine will spread among countries with local conflicts, including Nigeria and Yemen. 

The OECD warns the world economy will collapse by 4.5% this year, in its worst slowdown since World War II. Even though strong recoveries have been seen across the globe, international aid and private funding for improving food security has fallen short due to the economic collapse and the consequent focus on other needs.   

In the USAID October 2020 East Africa – Desert Locust Crisis, Fact Sheet #7, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) expects desert locust infestations to persist across Ethiopia and Somalia through at least March 2021. Yemen remains a reservoir for desert locust breeding, posing an ongoing threat to the Horn of Africa region.

Moreover, according to the 2020 ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) update, La Niña is here. WMO warned that East Africa is projected to see drier-than-usual conditions; however, in India, La Niña means the country will receive more rainfall than normal, leading to floods. La Niña weather will impact food production, transportation, and markets.

With all of these factors, the U.N. World Food Programme has warned that an additional 130 million people could face acute food insecurity by the end of 2020, on top of the 135 million people who were already acutely food insecure before the crisis. 

What is the solution to avoid the Hunger Pandemic in 2021?

References and Further Reading:

• Instead of Coronavirus, the Hunger Will Kill Us.’ A Global Food Crisis Looms. (04/24/2020)
• September 2020 ENSO update: La Niña is here! (09/10/2020)
• COVID-19 and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: implications of lockdown during agricultural planting seasons (09/14/2020)
• The OECD warns the world economy will collapse by 4.5% this year, in its worst slowdown since World War Two (09/16/2020)
• New wave of famine could sweep the globe, overwhelming nations already weakened by years of conflict, warn UN officials (09/18/2020)
• Policy seminar: COVID-19 impacts on African agricultural trade and food security. (09/30/2020)
• East Africa – Desert Locust Crisis, Fact Sheet #7, Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 (10/09/2020)
• 2020/2021 La Niña is likely to be a moderate to strong event. (10/21/2020)
• World could face ‘hunger pandemic’ in 2021, World Food Programme head warns‘ (11/17/2020)
• A Crisis-within-a Crisis: the Worst Locust Outbreak in Decades.
• Historical La Nina years:  1973–1974, 1975–1976, 1983–1984, 1988–1989, 1998–1999, 2000–2001, 2008–2009, 2010–2011, 2016–2017, 2020-2021